Thursday, November 30, 2017

The Davis Index Week 13

Week 13 Preview 
It’s the final week of the season.  Last year, the difference between making the playoffs (and making a run to the championship game) versus missing the playoffs was less than 1 point.   The league has taken on a very different feel this year, with The Trojans building what appears to be a super team through savvy drafting and patience.  Also, the league is split into three distinct tiers in part due to Vonteego Cross needing a win to avoid having the worst record in the four years I have been in the league.  With all this in mind, here are the playoff scenarios.  I am not doing power rankings this week, but you will notice that these act as pseudo power rankings.
The top 4
Number 1 Seed- The number 1 seed will most likely be The Trojans.  The only way that this will not happen is if the Ginger’s outscore The Trojans by more than 159.2 points or The Rookie wins, The Trojans lose and The Rookie outscores The Trojans by more than 140.5 points.  I think Maggs is your regular season champ, in addition to the Island champ
Seeds 2-4- Here is where things get interesting.  Currently, the order goes as follows, The Rookie, Ginger Snaps, and No Bobby No.  I will try to explain each scenario, because there is a way for these teams to be in any order. Note: Although No Bobby No is a game behind the other two teams, they do have the points tiebreaker currently.
The Rookie, Ginger Snaps, No Bobby No- Either all three teams win and The Gingers don’t outscore the Rookie by more than 18.7 points or Ginger Snaps and No Bobby No lose. Also, can happen if all three teams lose and the Gingers don’t outscore the Rookie by more than 18.7 points. This can also happen if The Rookie wins or loses and outscore No Bobby No by 12.8 points and Ginger Snaps loses but outscores No Bobby No by 31.5 points.
The Rookie, No Bobby No, Ginger Snaps- Ginger Snaps loses, No Bobby No wins and doesn’t get outscored by more than 31.5 points.  In this scenario, The Rookie can either win or lose and outscore No Bobby No by 12.8 points. 
Ginger Snaps, The Rookie, No Bobby No- This scenario happens with a win by the Ginger Snaps and outscoring the Rookie by more than 18.7 points if he wins with The Rookie winning or losing outscoring No Bobby No by more than 12.8 points if the win.  This can also happen with a No Bobby No loss or both The Rookie and No Bobby No losing
Ginger Snaps, No Bobby No, The Rookie- This happens with a Ginger Snaps win or loss and outscoring No Bobby No by 31.5 points, No Bobby No winning but not being outscored by The Rookie by more than 12.8 points and The Rookie losing his matchup
No Bobby No, The Rookie, Ginger Snaps-  The Rookie and the ginger snaps need to lose, and No Bobby No needs to win, not be outscored by the respective teams by 31.5 and 12.8 points, and The Rookie is not outscored by more than 18.7 points by the Ginger Snaps
No Bobby No, Ginger Snaps, The RookieThe Rookie and the ginger snaps need to lose, and No Bobby No needs to win, not be outscored by the respective teams by 31.5 and 12.8 points, and The Rookie is outscored by more than 18.7 points by the Ginger Snaps
Current score predictions have the order going The Rookie, No Bobby No, then the Ginger Snaps since they facing the Juggernaut this week
Seeds 5-8
5th SeedThe Romosexuals get this with a win and not being outscored by a winning DTA by more than 262 points.  DTA gets it with a win and Romosexuals loss.  The Romosexuals have such a large point lead it’s highly unlikely one of the 5-7 teams would pass him for their seed (about 89 points).
6th Seed- If Both the Romosexuals and DTA win, then DTA gets the 6th seed. If DTA wins and the romosexuals lose, then they flip spots.  If DTA loses this is where the craziness begins.  DTA has the least amount of points scored in the league (Yes Vonteego Cross has outscored them).  
Any team that wants to pass DTA needs to win first
The Monstars-Win and not be outscored by MMCB if they win by more than 7 points
MMCB- Win and have The Monstars lose or outscore them by 7 points 
All Fired Up- Win and have the other teams lose while not being outscored by DTA by 28 points or more
If all three teams lose then DTA gets the 6th seed
7th & 8th SeedIf DTA wins
• The Monstars-Win and not be outscored by MMCB if they win by more than 7 points
• MMCB- Win and have The Monstars lose or outscore them by 7 points
• All Fired Up- Win and have the other teams lose while not being outscored by DTA by 28 points or more
A loss by all three teams opens the door to Ride or Dies, if they win and all three teams losing, they just need to outscore the Monstars by 141 points and Mean Machine by 134 points.  Most likely it will revert up to the previous scoring tiebreakers
If DTA loses
• DTA gets a playoff spot if any two of these teams lose or if they outscore All Fired Up by 28 points.
• The Monstars get a playoff spot with a win or not being outscored by MMCB by more than 7 along with losses to All Fired Up or MMCB.  
• MMCB gets in with a win or loss and All Fired Up loss.  
• All Fired Up gets in with a win and loss by one of three teams above them and not be outscored by DTA by more than 28 points.  
• IF DTA loses and all three teams above win, then DTA will miss the playoffs (as long as they don’t beat All Fired Up by 28 points).
Window is open just slightly 
Ride or Dies-  Aaron Rodgers getting hurt ruined any chance this team had.  Also, hoping for a Doug Martin resurgence has not come along with having to trade away a loaded wr corps to get two qbs.  Mismanagement is the reason that Ride or Dies are on the outside looking in.  If they can survive week 1 of the Murphy playoffs, they can be a wild card to win it since Rodgers can come back week 15.  

Failed to make the Playoffs
Team GFY- Despite a trade deadline deal of Lev Bell to try and fill holes on the roster, the 5 game skid this team is on has been too much to overcome. The team has one win since week 2 and could not get over early season wr and qb issues.
Vonteego CrossThis team has been the worst team all season.  They traded away all their parts and have great keepers in Watson and Kamara.  They are on track to be the worst team in PP history and have not beat a team outside the bottom three.  
Based on Current Projections on the ESPN app here are your week 1 matchups 
The Trojans vs the Monstars
The Rookie vs DTA
No Bobby No vs MMCB
Ginger Snaps vs The Romosexuals

Murphy Bracket is 
All Fired Up vs GFY
Vonteego Cross vs Ride or Dies 

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