The Davis Index Week 13

Week 13 Preview 

It’s the final week of the season.  Last year, the difference between making the playoffs (and making a run to the championship game) versus missing the playoffs was less than 1 point.   The league has taken on a very different feel this year, with The Trojans building what appears to be a super team through savvy drafting and patience.  Also, the league is split into three distinct tiers in part due to Vonteego Cross needing a win to avoid having the worst record in the four years I have been in the league.  With all this in mind, here are the playoff scenarios.  I am not doing power rankings this week, but you will notice that these act as pseudo power rankings.

The top 4

Number 1 Seed- The number 1 seed will most likely be The Trojans.  The only way that this will not happen is if the Ginger’s outscore The Trojans by more than 159.2 points or The Rookie wins, The Trojans lose and The Rookie outscores The Trojans by more than 140.5 points.  I think Maggs is your regular season champ, in addition to the Island champ

Seeds 2-4- Here is where things get interesting.  Currently, the order goes as follows, The Rookie, Ginger Snaps, and No Bobby No.  I will try to explain each scenario, because there is a way for these teams to be in any order. Note: Although No Bobby No is a game behind the other two teams, they do have the points tiebreaker currently.

​The Rookie, Ginger Snaps, No Bobby No- Either all three teams win and The Gingers don’t outscore the Rookie by more than 18.7 points or Ginger Snaps and No Bobby No lose. Also, can happen if all three teams lose and the Gingers don’t outscore the Rookie by more than 18.7 points. This can also happen if The Rookie wins or loses and outscore No Bobby No by 12.8 points and Ginger Snaps loses but outscores No Bobby No by 31.5 points.

​The Rookie, No Bobby No, Ginger Snaps- Ginger Snaps loses, No Bobby No wins and doesn’t get outscored by more than 31.5 points.  In this scenario, The Rookie can either win or lose and outscore No Bobby No by 12.8 points. 

​Ginger Snaps, The Rookie, No Bobby No- This scenario happens with a win by the Ginger Snaps and outscoring the Rookie by more than 18.7 points if he wins with The Rookie winning or losing outscoring No Bobby No by more than 12.8 points if the win.  This can also happen with a No Bobby No loss or both The Rookie and No Bobby No losing

​Ginger Snaps, No Bobby No, The Rookie- This happens with a Ginger Snaps win or loss and outscoring No Bobby No by 31.5 points, No Bobby No winning but not being outscored by The Rookie by more than 12.8 points and The Rookie losing his matchup

​No Bobby No, The Rookie, Ginger Snaps-  The Rookie and the ginger snaps need to lose, and No Bobby No needs to win, not be outscored by the respective teams by 31.5 and 12.8 points, and The Rookie is not outscored by more than 18.7 points by the Ginger Snaps

​No Bobby No, Ginger Snaps, The Rookie- The Rookie and the ginger snaps need to lose, and No Bobby No needs to win, not be outscored by the respective teams by 31.5 and 12.8 points, and The Rookie is outscored by more than 18.7 points by the Ginger Snaps

Current score predictions have the order going The Rookie, No Bobby No, then the Ginger Snaps since they facing the Juggernaut this week

Seeds 5-8

5th Seed- The Romosexuals get this with a win and not being outscored by a winning DTA by more than 262 points.  DTA gets it with a win and Romosexuals loss.  The Romosexuals have such a large point lead it’s highly unlikely one of the 5-7 teams would pass him for their seed (about 89 points).

6th Seed- If Both the Romosexuals and DTA win, then DTA gets the 6th seed. If DTA wins and the romosexuals lose, then they flip spots.  If DTA loses this is where the craziness begins.  DTA has the least amount of points scored in the league (Yes Vonteego Cross has outscored them).  

​Any team that wants to pass DTA needs to win first

​​The Monstars-Win and not be outscored by MMCB if they win by more than 7 points

​​MMCB- Win and have The Monstars lose or outscore them by 7 points 

​​All Fired Up- Win and have the other teams lose while not being outscored by DTA by 28 points or more

​​If all three teams lose then DTA gets the 6th seed

7th & 8th Seed- If DTA wins

• The Monstars-Win and not be outscored by MMCB if they win by more than 7 points

• MMCB- Win and have The Monstars lose or outscore them by 7 points

• All Fired Up- Win and have the other teams lose while not being outscored by DTA by 28 points or more

A loss by all three teams opens the door to Ride or Dies, if they win and all three teams losing, they just need to outscore the Monstars by 141 points and Mean Machine by 134 points.  Most likely it will revert up to the previous scoring tiebreakers

If DTA loses

• DTA gets a playoff spot if any two of these teams lose or if they outscore All Fired Up by 28 points.

• The Monstars get a playoff spot with a win or not being outscored by MMCB by more than 7 along with losses to All Fired Up or MMCB.  

• MMCB gets in with a win or loss and All Fired Up loss.  

• All Fired Up gets in with a win and loss by one of three teams above them and not be outscored by DTA by more than 28 points.  

• IF DTA loses and all three teams above win, then DTA will miss the playoffs (as long as they don’t beat All Fired Up by 28 points).

Window is open just slightly 

Ride or Dies-  Aaron Rodgers getting hurt ruined any chance this team had.  Also, hoping for a Doug Martin resurgence has not come along with having to trade away a loaded wr corps to get two qbs.  Mismanagement is the reason that Ride or Dies are on the outside looking in.  If they can survive week 1 of the Murphy playoffs, they can be a wild card to win it since Rodgers can come back week 15.  

Failed to make the Playoffs

Team GFY- Despite a trade deadline deal of Lev Bell to try and fill holes on the roster, the 5 game skid this team is on has been too much to overcome. The team has one win since week 2 and could not get over early season wr and qb issues.

Vonteego Cross- This team has been the worst team all season.  They traded away all their parts and have great keepers in Watson and Kamara.  They are on track to be the worst team in PP history and have not beat a team outside the bottom three.  

Based on Current Projections on the ESPN app here are your week 1 matchups 

​The Trojans vs the Monstars

​The Rookie vs DTA

​No Bobby No vs MMCB

​Ginger Snaps vs The Romosexuals

Murphy Bracket is 

​All Fired Up vs GFY

​Vonteego Cross vs Ride or Dies 

The Davis Index Week 11

1. The Trojans have been above the league average 90% of the time this year.

2. Ginger Snaps tied No Bobby No for second with 70% of the time being above the league average.

3. DTA is last in the Davis Index only having one week above the league average (and that was a 200-point game). 

4. Team GFY has faced the hardest schedule facing an above average score 70% of the time.

5. No Bobby No and The Romosexuals have the second hardest schedule facing an above average score 60% of the time. 

6. Ride or Dies and the Ginger Snaps have the easiest schedule, only facing an above average score 30% of the time. 

7. No Bobby No and The Trojans have officially locked upplayoff spots.

8. The Ginger Snaps and The Rookie can lock up playoff spots with a win or loss by Ride or Dies, The Monstars or Team DTA.

9. Vonteego Cross needs to win out and get help to make the playoffs. It is possible to make the playoffs with 5 wins.

10. DTA, All Fired Up and Ride or Die are all averaging 125 points or less per game this season.

Lucky or Unlucky

You might remember, the Davis Index spawned out of me wanting to know, who was performing well against the rest of the league, and who was just getting lucky based on schedule.   Utilizing the new “All Play” tool I have, I have finally been able to compare winning percentage against the entire league, to the actual standings.

Lucky- These teams win percentage are one game above what the all play win percentage is.

• No Bobby No

• The Trojans 

• Ginger Snaps 

• The Rookie

• Team DTA

Neutral-These teams win percentage are exactly where they are supposed to be

• Mean Machine Child Beaters

• Ride or Dies

• All Fired Up

Unlucky-These teams win percentage are one game below what the all play win percentage is

• The Romosexuals 

• The Monstars

• Vonteego Cross

Extremely Unlucky-This team is 2 games below the all play win percentage

• Team GFY-makes sense when you have the most difficult schedule in the league so far.

Random player/team facts

1. Cam Newton got 39.7 points last week and is now the number 5 quarterback.

2. The 2-5 qb’s last week were Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum, and CJ Beathard.  That makes a lot of sense

3. Deshaun Watson is still the number 7 qb ahead of Stafford, Cousins, and Brees amongst many others.

4. Josh McCown and Jacoby Brisett are the 12th and 13th qb’s this season, ahead of Rivers, Ryan and Roethlisberger.

5. The Saints ran the ball on 24 consecutive plays on Sunday.  The last time that happened, Drew Brees was 10 years old.

6. The Saints have the number 6 and number 7 rb’s this season (Ingram and Kamara).

7. The Jaguars have won 3 games in a row, with Leonard Fournette totaling 33 yards rushing in those games

8. Austin Ekeler and Dion Lewis were top 10 rb’s this year

9. The difference between Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt is the more than the difference between Kareem Hunt and number 8 Carlos Hyde.

10. The Browns Saints and Falcons are the only 3 teams to have 2 top 24 rb’s

11. Isiah Crowell has scored double digit points the last three weeks in a row and is now number 2 rb, despite averaging less than 2 catches per game. 

12. Adam Thielen is the number 3 WR this season, just ahead of Larry Fitzgerald and AJ Green

13. The difference between number 3 and number 22 wr is less than 30 points. 3 and 22 at rb’s difference is 81 points.

14. Including the massive game, he had week 3, Sammy Watkins has 21 catches this season. His former and current teammate, Robert Woods has more catches then that in his last 4 games.

15. Robert Woods has 60 points combined the last two weeks,

16. The giants have a touchdown to tight end in 9 straight games.

17. Evan Engram has scored a touchdown in 4 consecutive games

18. Only 10 tight ends are averaging 10 points per game this season.

19. If you take out the Denver game, the Giants DST has scored 0 points this season.

20. The Jags DST more points than Duke Johnson and Alshon Jeffrey. 

One Kicker stat just because: Greg Zuerlein has outscored the second kicker by 35 points this season.  That is a larger game than the number 2 kicker and the number 19 kicker.  

The Davis Index will be delayed if it comes out at all next week.  I will be traveling.  If it comes out, it will be either be on Friday or Saturday. Good Luck down the stretch

The Davis Index Week 10

1. Mean Machine had the highest score all season, and was only the second 200-point week of the season 

2. Despite Mean Machine’s tremendous week, the average score went down over 2 points from last week.

3. The Trojans have scored above the league average 8 out 9 weeks this season (No Bobby No is closest with 7 out of 9 weeks).

4. Team GFY has tied The Romosexuals for the hardest schedule this season. 

5. The Rookie lost for the first time this year starting 2 qbs

6. Ride or Dies was the low score of the week for the third time this season.

7. 6 teams are separated by one game.

8. No Bobby No and The Trojans can clinch playoff spotswith wins

9. Vonteego Cross has the least amount of points scored and most points against.

10. The final three teams on the island are the Ginger Snaps, No Bobby No, and The Trojans

Random Player Facts

1. Russell Wilson is now the number one player on a ppg basis.  Carson Wentz is number 1 overall.

2. The difference between Russell Wilson and # 7 qb Matthew Stafford (5.8 points per game) is the more than the difference between Stafford and Jameis Winston (#21 QB).

3. Despite not playing since week 6, Aaron Rodgers is still ahead of Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, and Ben Roethlisberger in total points this season.

4. Kareem Hunt had 6 touchdowns in his first three weeks of the season.  He has not gotten into the end zone since.

5. The Trojans have 3 top 5 running backs this season.  T

6. 4 rookie running backs are in the top 12 this season (Hunt, Fournette, Kamara, McCaffrey)

7. If you look at the top 6 rookies in terms of catches, they have one common theme. None of them are WR’s.

8. The difference between Doug Baldwin (#4 WR) and Keenan Allen (#24 wr) is 22.1 points on the season (a little over 2 points per game).

9. Tyreek Hill only scores double digit points on the road (Seriously look it up).

10. Jarvis Landry is the number 6 wr without having more than 93 yards in a game.

11. Travis Kelce is now the number 1 tight end averaging over 16 points per game, only two Wr’s average more than him.

12. Jared Cook is the number 7 tight end despite have 5 games under 10 points. 

13. The Saints DST had as many points on Sunday as the Raiders have had all season.

14. The Giants DST has -10 points last week.  Seriously -10.

15. Greg Zuerlein averages more points per game then Jordan Howard and is 0.1 less then Devonta Freeman

The Davis Index Week 8

Power Rankings

1. The Trojans– This team is loaded after his trade with Vonteego Cross and All Fired Up. Ben Roethlisberger has a very favorable schedule rest of season, to go along with Cam and Drew Brees. Choosing the right qb’s to play might be frustrating.  This team has three top rb’s and three solid wr’s. The one potential hiccup is if either of their two older qb’s get injured, it also might crush the wr value. The talent and keeper options on this is team are abundant and must be considered the favorite.

2. No Bobby No – After a solid trade to with Ride or Dies to move Larry Fitzgerald down the depth chart, No Bobby No appears to be a contender.  Trading away Semien last week was smart. The team has had solid play all around, led by Zach Ertz and Russell Wilson.  Although, No Bobby No has been solid all season, the team lacks the elite talent at the very top of the roster that The Trojans has.  This team has room for growth though, if Freeman, Howard and Ajayi can play like that they did last year. Ajayi has a great schedule down the stretch, but who knows if he is even the starter.  

3. The Rookie- The Rookie can make an argument that he deserves to be number 1.  The team is led by elite WR and RB Talent, along with the best tight end in football and an amazing waiver wire add in Aaron Jones.  Quarterback play has been very underwhelming with no number 1 qb.  The talent throughout the roster makes up for it, but a well-timed trade in the next 6 days, might push this roster over the top.  The rookie might have the ammo to make the tradewith Zeke Elliot suspended this week (and potentially longer) or a Greg Olsen return to health. 

4. Ginger Snaps-This spot was tough because they have been crushed by circumstance, until today. Rodgers and Luck getting/staying injured crushed their top 2 wr’s. Getting Will Fuller and Nuke Hopkins might be their saving grace along with getting Golden Tate back so quickly. They should be praying every night for the continued good health of Deshaun Watson, since they might be more dependent on him then The Monstars.  The team has solid qb play along with two top 12 rb’s now.    

5. The Romosexuals-  This might be controversial, but I love the lineup.  2 solid, if not underperforming qb’s along with 3 first round caliber players makes this team a serious contender in the playoffs.  The reason they aren’t higher is the suspension of Elliot along with the injury risk of Jones and Reed.  If Zeke’s suspension carries through, these team is DANGEROUS come playoff time, since he would be back for the semifinals. Robby Anderson has been a capable fill in for Sanders and can be a flex going forward. JD might need to trade for another rb to fill in for Zeke the next 6 weeks, especially if he can’t beat the Rookie this week. The Rookie seems like a solid potential trade partner with rb depth and a potential need of a qb upgrade.

6. MMCB-  Joe and Tim have done a good job of managing a team that we all thought was dead.  Making an aggressive trade for Doug Baldwin has helped this team stay afloat.  Trading for him along with grabbing Smith-Schuster and Agholor have made this team competitive. Grabbing Hilton today was a bold but high upside play. Alex Smith and Dak Prescott have been incredible this season.   They look like a playoff team, that would mostly likely be up near the top if Beckham didn’t get hurt. 

7. Ride or Dies- Pat and Marty have one top of the line player and that’s Tom Brady but lack depth. Not being active early in the season trying to acquire a third qb, made it hard for them when Rodgers when done. They were forced to make several trades including dismantling a strong wr core toprovide the qb depth they were desperate for. Frivously spending FAAB dollars forced them to trade away Benjamin to get a second qb since they were consistently blocked by other teams.  Placing their hopes on Orleans Darkwa also seems questionable.  They made the best of an awful situation and have a competitive roster. This team needs to rattle off wins as they play 3 out of the top 5 teams in these rankings the last 3 weeks of the season. Rodgers is not eligible to come back until week 15.

8. Team GFY- Gambs and Sarno have a good rb group along with Brandin Cooks.  Derek Carr has been a disappointment to me this season.  With another breakout game for Alex Collins, he can be some serious trade bait for rb needy teams.  Gambs and Sarno have grabbed some great pickups in Collins, Richardson, and Kearse to give them a shot at saving their season,

9. The Monstars- This team has stayed in playoff contention thanks to Deshaun Watson and ASJ.  David Johnson doesn’t know if he will be able to return this season, but did say today that the Cardinals record does not affect his timeline.  If he does this team can be a cinderella in the playoffs upsetting one of the top seeds.  The team has a bunch of young qbs and figuring out who to start alongside Watson will be a question going forward.  This team was most affected by the Benjamin trade having the two pieces in Carolina that are most likely to benefit.  

10. Team DTA- Kevin and DJ were hurt by the Rodgers injury, but I never saw consistent talent across the roster.  Fournette is a STUD, but Mariotta and Dalton have not been as reliable as they have been in past seasons.  The WR group is rough and the team might need to be aggressive with a week to go to have a shot at getting to the playoffs. It’s time to be bold gentlemen.

11. All Fired Up- I had this team written up the other day and I deleted the whole thing because none of it matters. Chuck sold off most of his team and got a lot back.  He has strong keeper options at the qb position and will still be mildly competitive down the stretch.  Chuck went super young in the draft, and continues to have the youngest roster in the league.  It will be interesting to see if he sets a blue print for future struggling teams (Note: I am not breaking all his trades down, because it was too many and I don’t want to.)

12. Vonteego Cross-This team started as a dumpster fire and just continues to be.  They sold off most of their talent for keepers like Diggs and Kamara.  The downfall of this team was trading Hopkins on draft day and relying too much on Sammie Watkins.  The Bills are smarter than VC.  They were able to salvage the Will Fuller debacle by flipping him, but still.  It’s another disappointment for a team that was once a consistent threat.  

All Play 

As we all know, the fantasy football scheduling can be a cruel mistress.  Take Ginger’s team last year.  He routinely played a high scorer week in and week out.  I have looked into this and decided to share with you some information I found. The record indicated below is how you would fare if your team played EVERY Team in the league EVERY WEEK.  So, if you were the high score week 1, you were 11-0, #2 10-1, and if you were Mike and his historically low performance 0-11.

The top four teams in the standings and the Davis Index are the same as this chart as well.  It shows a nearly perfect distribution of teams and there are very few outliers.  The most shocking team to me is The Rookie, because I thought he was the best team all season until recently.  

Davis Index

1. The Trojans have taken the lead in the consistency ratings, scoring above the league average 7 out 8 weeks this season.

2. After starting the season with 6 consecutive weeks of scores above the league average, The Rookie failed to do so for the second week in a row. 

3. The Ginger Snaps and No Bobby No tied the Rookie with their 6th above league average performance of the year as well.

4. The Rookie is undefeated when he has two starting qb’s in his lineup.

5. The Romosexuals have had the hardest schedule facing an above league average team 75% of the time followed by No Bobby No and Team GFY

6. The league average is above 140 points for the first time since week 4.

7. 7 teams are within one game of each other.  

8. The Rooke was kicked off the Island this week

9. The four teams left on the island are No Bobby No, Team GFY, The Trojans, and the Gingersnaps.  That’s a lot of chubbiness on the island…and Murphy.

10. No Bobby No clinches a playoff spot with a win and a loss by any 2 of the other 3 win teams besides GFY.

Random Player Stats

1. Despite not playing a game since before Christmas 2014, Josh Gordon has more yards the Mohammed Sanu in his career (both drafted in 2012). (Credit JD Rappaport)

2. Nuke Hopkins had 46.4 points on Sunday, but was not the highest scorer on his own team let along in his game.

3. Deshaun Watson had his second 40-point game of the season and is the number 1 qb in PP, he is averaging 28.3 ppg.

4. Russell Wilson had 49.1 points on Sunday and it’s his 4th game out of his last 5 in which he scored at least 29 points. He is now the number 5 qb.

5. After the London game, Isaiah Crowell is a borderline starting rb (#26).

6. Todd Gurley is now number 1 amongst rb’s in ppg followed by Zeke, Hunt, and Bell.  They are the only four rb’s averaging 20 points per game

7. Sunday was the first game Kareem Hunt has not had 100 total yards in his career

8. Jay Ajayi will have two bye weeks this season while Kelvin Benjamin will not have one.

9. Will Fuller has 7 touchdowns on 13 catches the past four games, averaging over 20 points per game so far. 

10. Despite playing 4 less games then Hilton, Will Fuller is less than 2 points behind him this season.  

11. Based off pretty much one game, Amari Cooper is a top 12 wr.

12. Zach Ertz is the only pass catcher to have double digit points every game this year.

13. In case you missed it, Jack Doyle had 30.1 points last week and is now a top 5 tight end 

14. 4 dst’s (Ravens, eagles, Cowboys, and Chiefs) scored more points last week then the Raiders have scored on the season

15. Harrison Butker is the number 6 kicker despite missing the first 3 games of the season. He has 4 double digit games out of 5 and 2 21 point games so far this season.